The US groundfish market remains under considerable upward pressure due to ongoing supply shortages, steadily rising demand, and logistical disruptions. Key species, particularly Atlantic cod and haddock, are driving market dynamics as many buyers secured inventory ahead of expected price hikes earlier this year, sources told Undercurrent News.

Supply constraints have intensified in the twice-frozen groundfish segment, with Chinese vendors continuing to limit orders due to product shortages.

This limited availability, coupled with growing buyer demand leading into the holiday season, is applying additional market pressure, particularly on Atlantic cod, for which raw material prices keep setting new records. 

Logistical issues, such as the ongoing port strikes, as reported by Undercurrent, are further complicating the situation, as delayed imports, dwindling inventories and increasing transportation costs contribute to price increases. 

US wholesale prices: Groundfish (twice-frozen) Week 44

In terms of pricing, Atlantic cod has seen the sharpest increases, a reflection of the current strained supply environment. US wholesale prices for twice-frozen Atlantic cod loins averaged $5.80 per pound in week 44 (Oct. 28-Nov. 3), representing a 3.6% rise from earlier in October. In contrast, twice-frozen haddock has held steady but remains firm, with IQF fillets averaging $3.80/lb.

Pacific cod prices, while not rising as quickly as Atlantic cod, have shown moderate upward movement as buyers begin to shift to more affordable options in response to Atlantic cod’s higher premiums. Pacific cod loins are currently priced at around $4.70/lb, displaying a steady to full, steady undertone.

US wholesale prices: Groundfish (single-frozen) Week 44

Single-frozen groundfish, especially frozen-at-sea (FAS) Icelandic products, have also seen price increases despite some softening in demand due to high premiums. FAS Icelandic cod averaged $6.85/lb for week 44, up 5.8% month-over-month, while FAS Icelandic haddock reached $4.85/lb, a 3.2% increase from earlier in October.

Despite rising prices, some US customers have yet to feel the full effect of recent hikes due to a gradual implementation of price increases and inventory backlogs. However, prices on future production orders from processors are already higher than current inventory costs, signaling that consumers may face more significant price adjustments in the coming months. The market may experience slower movement year-over-year as many buyers who anticipated these price hikes have already built up reserves.

Strategic market shifts are emerging as buyers pivot towards substitutes for high-priced Atlantic cod. Rising A cod prices are encouraging buyers to turn to Pacific cod and haddock as more affordable alternatives. If A cod prices continue to climb, demand for these substitutes may increase, impacting their pricing and availability.

A potential price ceiling is also in sight, as some buyers could be priced out of the market if Atlantic cod prices continue to rise, potentially softening demand but increasing pressure on other groundfish categories. Buyers moving away from Atlantic cod may seek out other species, raising demand in those areas.

Inventory issues, particularly around larger yellowfin sole sizes, are adding another layer of complexity. If these shortages persist, they could have ripple effects across the broader groundfish market, impacting supply availability and potentially driving up prices across various categories.

Complicating these dynamics further, Norway's fisheries directorate recently announced significant quota reductions for 2025, as reported by Undercurrent.

The Atlantic cod quota in the Barents Sea, distributed between Norway, Russia, and third countries, has been cut by 25% to 340,000 metric tons, with Norway's share at 163,436t. This quota cut follows scientific advice calling for reduced catches to help stabilize declining stocks, underscoring the challenges in the cod supply chain.

The Barents Sea haddock quota has also been reduced to 130,000t, with Norway’s share at 65,468t. Norwegian officials emphasized the need for sustainable marine management to support the Barents Sea cod population and other key species, highlighting the serious situation facing the industry.

The reduction in these quotas, particularly for cod, marks the lowest levels since 1991 and underscores the gravity of the declining stock situation, with potential long-term implications for supply and pricing stability in the US market.

New H&G price records 

As US wholesale prices show signs of rising, prices for frozen headed and gutted (H&G) raw material from Norway and Russia keep setting new weekly record levels. 

H&G price offers from Norwegian and Russian sellers reached previously unseen levels in week 44 (Oct. 28-Nov. 3), with the latter rising faster than the former, as buyers facing further cuts in 2025 look to secure whatever supply is available. 

For week 44, sources along the supply chain gave a range of $7,200-$7,400/t, cost and freight China (CFR), for Norwegian H&G 1-2.5kg cod. Undercurrent has increased its week 44 price assessment by $50/t to $7,300/t, based on this range.

Then, a range of $5,800-$6,000/t CFR China was given for week 44 for H&G Russian Atlantic cod in the 1-2kg size. As a result, Undercurrent has increased its week 44 price assessment on 1-2kg H&G Russian cod by $150/t to $5,900/t.

The wide price spread between the Norwegian and Russian H&G cod is driven by the US banning fish from Russia in June, even when processed in third countries. The US banned direct imports from Russia in 2022 after the invasion of Ukraine.

Frozen H&G prices for haddock -- for which the 2025 TAC will drop 8% y-o-y to 130,000t -- are also rising fast. The price spread between the Norwegian and Russian raw material has closed to $100/t, as H&G haddock can be sent to Asia for processing, then to the US market.

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Sources on Norwegian and Russian haddock offered a wide range of prices, but all agreed that the market is still firming.

Sources in trading and purchasing quoted CFR China prices ranging from $4,600-$5,000/t for Norwegian frozen H&G haddock in the 800-gram plus size. Both Norwegian and Russian prices have surpassed the previous highs of around $4,400-$4,500/t in 2013 and 2014, as the data below from the Undercurrent prices portal shows. 

As a result, Undercurrent has adjusted its week 44 price assessment up by $150/t to $4,800/t on Norwegian frozen H&G haddock.

On Russian 500g-1kg frozen H&G haddock, Undercurrent's week 44 price assessment is $4,700/t, CFR China, up $100/t w-o-w.

Tight supply 

Supply of H&G Norwegian cod, which the US market has to use after the full ban on Russian double-frozen fillets from China, will be tight for the rest of the year, with demand strong. 

Norway has 35,591t left to catch of its 183,450t portion of the Barents Sea cod quota in week 44, compared to 36,535t of 262,161t. The trawl sector, which produces the frozen H&G cod and haddock, has 14,794t left to catch this year, compared to 18,433t at the same point in 2023.

For haddock, Norway has only 9,691t of its 65,933t portion of the Barents Sea quota to catch in week 44, compared to 16,087t of 78,882t at the same point of 2023. The Norwegian trawl fleet has 1,943t to catch over the rest of 2024, having over-caught by 8, 095t at this point of 2023.