US wholesale prices aren't moving for the two inexpensive whitefish imports that dominate the American market, but pressure is building.

The frozen fillet market for imported tilapia and pangasius remains strained as environmental disruptions in China and Vietnam impact supply chains. In Hainan, China, tilapia production is still recovering after September’s typhoon, which left fish undersized due to prolonged power outages.

As of week 45, the current US wholesale price assessment for individually vacuum-packed, moisture-added frozen tilapia fillets average $3.00 per pound for 3-5 ounce sizes, $3.10/lb for 5-7 oz, and $3.25/lb for 7-9 oz sizes, with chem-free products commanding a $0.20 premium.

US wholesale prices: Tilapia, China (week 45)

As global demand remains strong, upward pricing pressures are expected to persist, especially for larger-sized fillets.

While Guangdong’s supply has been stable, overall availability remains tight. Raw material prices for tilapia in Guangdong, illustrated in CNY per kilo from the Undercurrent News prices portal, have remained steady into week 45, aligning with stable US wholesale prices for frozen fillets. This reflects a resilient market despite ongoing supply challenges.

Interestingly, when converted to USD per kilo, prices slightly uptick after a three-week downward trend. This divergence highlights currency fluctuations and their impact on market dynamics, while firm demand and tight inventory underpin the US market's steady undertone.

Pangasius showing supply constraints

Pangasius production faces similar hurdles. Adverse weather in Vietnam has caused significant fingerling losses, further constraining supply, especially of larger fillets.

Despite this, US wholesale prices for frozen pangasius fillets remain unchanged at $2.00/lb across sizes. However, concerns over rising freight costs and increased farm-gate prices due to higher input costs are adding pressure.

US wholesale prices: Pangasius, Vietnam (week 45)

Upwards pressure on freight costs is expected through the end of the year as heavier volumes move throughout the supply chain. Meanwhile, farm-gate prices in Vietnam are rising due to elevated farming input costs like feed and energy, as the chart below from the Undercurrent Prices Portal shows. 

January 2024 is the only month this year where US imports of frozen tilapia fillets surpassed pangasius, deviating from the historical trend where tilapia consistently led.

From January to September 2024, US tilapia imports totaled 148.7 million pounds, while pangasius imports reached 193.1 million pounds. This shift is primarily due to persistent supply challenges in China, especially in Hainan.

From January to September 2024, US tilapia imports totaled 148.7 million pounds, while pangasius imports reached 193.1 million pounds. This shift is primarily due to persistent supply challenges in China, especially in Hainan.

Post-election landscape

Adding to the market’s uncertainty is the post-election landscape. Potential tariffs and policy shifts under the new administration could significantly alter trade dynamics. Market participants express cautious pessimism, citing risks like increased import costs and competitive pressures on global seafood supply.

As the industry awaits clarity on US tariffs and trade policies, there’s also speculation about domestic aquaculture growth. However, many believe it will be difficult to scale production sustainably or affordably to replace imports.

For now, the market remains steady but tense, with uncertainties around supply, pricing, and policy looming large.