Wholesale prices for snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) are continuing to climb weekly in the US as supply remains nearly impossible to find, and any meaningful new volume of imports remains at least five to six months away, sources told Undercurrent News.

Urner Barry (UB) on Tuesday (Nov. 12) again moved up its average range for frozen 5-8 ounce clusters from the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) to $8.25-$8.50 per pound, a full $0.25 higher than the $8.00-$8.25/lb range it published just five days earlier.

The latest wholesale price for the most widely sourced size and origin of snow crab is 26% higher than the $6.55-$6.75/lb range published on Sept. 12 and 42-43% more than the $5.75-$6.00/lb range published a year ago, on Nov. 14, 2023.

Similarly, UB published an average range of $8.50-$8.75/lb for frozen 5-8 oz. clusters from the Gulf of St. Lawrence, up $0.35 from the $8.15-$8.40/lb range published on Nov. 7. The cheapest snow crab -- that of Norwegian origin -- was not as cheap either, with frozen 5-8 oz. clusters going for $8.15-$8.40/lb on Tuesday, up $0.25 from the $7.90-$8.15/lb range published on Nov. 7.

"Buyers are somewhat reluctant to pay the higher price, but they're going to continue to do so until this thing is well over $9.00/lb," one US wholesaler predicted to Undercurrent News on Wednesday (Nov. 13). "In fact, there are some people who are saying it's going to hit $10.00/lb."

Size 8-10 ounce Canadian snow crab clusters at a Giant grocery store in Burtonsville, Maryland, on Oct. 13, 2024. Photograph by Jason Huffman.

Larger sizes, like 8-10 oz clusters from NL, were averaging $11.60-$11.85/lb on Tuesday, the same as on Nov. 7, but up 11% from two months earlier. The largest sizes, 10 oz. and up, from NL were selling for an average $12.75-$13.00/lb on Tuesday, also the same as on Nov. 7 but up 17% from two months earlier.

Roman Tkachenko, the CEO of Bellevue, Washington-based Direct Source Seafood, remains unrattled, however. His company is one of the US' largest importers and suppliers of snow and king crab, and he's seen it before.

"We're back to pre-pandemic prices," he told Undercurrent on Wednesday. "This isn't something that's just out of the ordinary. These are numbers that we've been at before, in 2017, 2018 and 2019, when the prices were $7.75 to $8.50 [for 5-8 oz. clusters]. That was the fluctuation on the market, and so we're very much back to normal levels."

He added: "This is what the market's trying to get, and I think this is what the market is going to get. There's no Russian and you're going into a period of January, February, March, April without anything really."

Monthly import volumes keep dropping

The impetus for the ever-increasing prices of course, as Tkachenko noted, is the dwindling supply.

Canada's pace of snow crab exports to the US have rapidly decreased since its seasons ended in August, reveals the latest trade data available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and on UCN's Trade Portal.

The US imported 1,382 metric tons of snow worth $22.4 million in September 2024, 24% more volume and 43% more value than in September 2023. Most of it -- 1,122t worth $17.3m -- was from Canada, up 13% in volume and 29% on value than year-on-year.

The volume of snow crab imported from Canada in September was less than half the 2,389t worth $36.8m that was imported in August, as reported by Undercurrent. As the UCN price portal chart below shows, the import volumes have been dropping since May 2024 when the US took in a whopping 15,945t worth $252.1m, the biggest volume month since June 2015.

The chart shows an average price for Canadian snow crab of $7.05/lb in September, up from the $7.01/lb seen in August but down from the $7.17/lb seen in May. Of course, the figures don't account for numerous price-related variables, including the sizes of the crabs. 

The US imported 54,338t of snow crab worth $845.2m over the first nine months of 2024, 4% less volume and 16% more value than the 56,648t worth $728.3m imported during the same period in 2023. Most of the snow crab entering the US in 2024 (90%) -- 49,099t worth $767.3m -- is from Canada.

Though there was some expectation that Canada might top its 2023 record for snow crab exports to the US (53,536t), it's looking less and less likely.

Hodges: no more than 4,447t left in Canada

Les Hodges, a snow and king crab consultant based in the Seattle, Washington, area, on Wednesday (Nov. 13) updated his estimate for how much snow crab remains in Canada from the recently concluded seasons. He believes there is just 4,447t left at most, and that doesn't count the amount of snow crab sold in Canada.  

Hodges shared his formula for reaching this conclusion with Undercurrent:

• The latest estimate of the snow crab harvested in Canada during the 2024 seasons (95,943t) X a 63% recovery rate = 60,444t.
• April-September 2024 Canadian snow crab exports to US (48,901t) + exports to other countries (7,096t) = 55,130t. (Source: Statistics Canada)
• Recovered Canadian snow crab (60,444t) - export total (55,130t) = 4,447t (11m lbs).

Major retailers and food service companies secured early purchases of snow crab at lower prices, contributing to price stability, Hodges noted in an earlier interview with Undercurrent. More than 50% of US imports of snow crab came in the early months of the season, before prices began to rise.

"The high level of sales in May and June, along with a reduced [total allowable catch] in 2024 almost assured that US imports would drop for the remainder of the year," he added in his most recent newsletter to clients and colleagues, predicting: "US inventories in November are limited and snow crab will be short for the holidays."

As of the week of Nov. 4, UB reported that 12 of the 16 regions had retail chains advertising snow crab, with eight offering prices below the current UB benchmark for 5-8 oz. snow crab, Hodges noted.  

What's left in inventory is 'closely guarded'

Undercurrent's US wholesale source said he's struggled to find snow crab but believes there are companies holding some in inventory and just waiting for even higher prices. He won't buy unless he can get a good price.

"The basic problem is what little is left in people's inventory is closely guarded because it's in the hands of only a very small amount of people and they're just looking at getting the maximum profit they can," said the source. "And so every time a sale is made for a load of crab, they shoot the price up."

Tkachenko said he couldn't speak to the notion that some snow crab suppliers might be holding onto inventory in anticipation of higher prices. 

"Maybe, I can see that, but we're holding maybe less than a percent of what we had last year at this time," he said. "I know there are an enormous amount of companies that do this, and, yes, there's rumblings that someone's holding. I haven't seen it and I buy a lot."

Norway done; Alaska on the way

Simultaneous to Canada exhausting its snow crab supply, Norway, the US' second largest source of snow crab -- albeit a distant second -- wrapped up its season months ago, sending just 3,730 (36%) of its 10,300t of quota to the US and the rest to a multitude of other markets.

That's 20% more than the 3,118t Norway sent to the US during the first nine months of 2023.

But there is little snow crab left in Norway as well. NOAA's latest update to its seafood trade database shows the US receiving just 24t of Norwegian snow crab in September.

There's good news on the horizon, however, as Norway has announced a 24% increase to its TAC for the 2025 season, giving harvesters there 12,724t of potential landings, Hodges noted.

Another potential supplier soon of snow crab is the US state of Alaska. Recall that the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) surprised many observers on Oct. 4 by announcing the reopening of the Bering Sea snow crab fishery on Oct. 15, as reported by Undercurrent. The announcement followed a two-season hiatus due to low stocks.

Crab traps sit on a dock in Alaska. Photograph by Bri Dwyer courtesy of Alaska Bering Sea Crabbers.

The total allowable catch (TAC) in Alaska is just 2,141t, with another 214t set aside for community development quota groups. 

Though that's a small amount of landings and the harvest isn't expected to really begin until early January, the US wholesaler said he expected the re-opening of the fishery to put even more pressure on the prices paid for Canadian snow crabs.

Alaskan snow crab is deemed a premium product and is heavily sought after in the Japanese market, the wholesaler explained. He predicted Japanese buyers would descend quickly and buy up as much as they can at higher prices, setting the bar for future snow crab sales in Canada. 

Future of Russia ban is big unknown

Another new, potential source of snow crab in the future could be a familiar one: Russia. 

Recall that outgoing president Joe Biden, in March 2022, signed an executive order (EO 14068) to ban the import of seafood and other products from Russia in response to the invasion of Ukraine. Then, in December 2023, he signed another EO (14114) to expand the ban to include pollock, salmon, cod and crab of Russian origin that was processed in other countries, as reported by Undercurrent.

Prior to the ban, Russia was the eighth-largest source of seafood in the US, accounting for imports of 48,867t worth $1.2bn in 2021, a 34% increase in value over what it sent the US in 2020. Russian seafood exports to the US in 2021 included roughly 80 items, but the most valuable were frozen snow crab, 18,799t worth $509.2m, and frozen red king crab, 8,486t worth $419.7m.

Because they are not bills passed by Congress, EOs are easy for new presidents to undo, and Trump has suggested the US could be on friendlier terms with Moscow. He's talked about using his influence to end the fighting over Ukraine.

But Trump has not yet discussed the idea of removing the ban and few in the industry are counting on it. Tkachenko told Undercurrent Wednesday that he's reluctant to make a prediction, and said the potential of Russian snow or king crab arriving in the US is a long way off regardless.

"We're so far ahead of something here, to be perfectly honest, that I'm just hesitant to say anything," he said. "Do I think there is a better chance than we had with this administration? Probably. But is it a realistic chance? I have no clue. So I think we got to let a few things more play out and then it's still going to take a while to get done."

Even if Russian crab were to enter the US market again, it might not have much impact on prices, Tkachenko added. Russian snow crabs are typically larger, selling in sizes of 8 & up, 10 and 12 ounces, he noted. 

Russian cooked-frozen Russian snow crab or opilio clusters showcased at the China Fisheries and Seafood Exhibition in 2024. Credit: Masahiko Takeuchi

"The Barents Sea 5-8s are in the same season as Canada," he said. "They start in the spring and, we've done this for years, where November, December was slow and then we would bring in Russian Far East product at the end of November, December, and then you sell it all before Canada opens up in the first to second quarter. That's how we used to be. We're not in that world anymore."

Tkachenko also noted how Russia is leaning more heavily on selling live crabs to Asia rather than frozen.

"And so, right now, if we go by where this market's going and build by what everything we're hearing about how short things are, then yeah, we're in a world of hurt for the next few months if there's no product," he said.

The other US wholesaler Undercurrent interviewed, meanwhile, believes "there's a strong likelihood" the ban on Russian products will be lifted by Trump.

"It's my guess that he'll use it as a bargaining chip, but we won't see or feel that for at least another six months," the source said. "Then the question remains, will consumers knowingly buy Russian product again, like when they used to, because retailers have to put it on the package though food service customers will have no idea."

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The return of Russian king crab, the source added, will be even bigger.

Meanwhile, Russia has been shipping record volumes of snow and king crab from its Barents Sea and Far East fisheries to Asia, with China replacing the US as its largest buyer, Hodges reported in his latest newsletter. China and South Korea remain focused on live crab, while Japan's demand is mainly for processed crab. 

"The Russian king and snow crab resource is stable and healthy," Hodges wrote. "The 2025 [TAC] for crab shows a 3.4% overall increase, with the projected total harvest reaching just under 110,000t. ... For snow crab, opilio increases from 47,706t to 50,099t, while Tanner snow crab has increased by 16% to 5,284t.  The deep-water Angulatus and Japonicus snow crab quotas have been raised to 13,500t."

Japan reports having imported 15,241t of snow crab through September with Russia accounting for 9,826t, Canada 3,504t and Norway 1,003t, Hodges reported. The average price on snow crab from all sources in Japan increased 15.8% to $15.77/kg compared to a year ago. The price on Russian snow crab is up 23%, while the price on Canadian is up 4% and the price on Norwegian is down 24%.