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Alaska pollock is entering 2025 on a generally positive footing, as modest increases in the Total Allowable Catch (TAC), stable resource conditions and healthy global demand converge.

While the Bering Sea TAC boost was expected and relatively small, it underscores Alaska pollock's continued reliability and positions the species to capture heightened attention in a tight global whitefish market.

With a new US administration, however, there is broader speculation about potential changes to Russian sanctions and trade relationships, but it remains too early to determine how this might affect Russian pollock imports or overall whitefish flows.

Recent logistics developments have also caught the industry's attention. Maersk's decision to reduce reefer equipment availability surprised many Alaskan shippers, and while this may lead to short-term delays and potential freight rate increases, the longer-term impact on shipping costs remains uncertain.

On the fishing side, discussions about potential new regulations on salmon bycatch management continue, though no concrete measures have been announced. Meanwhile, one supplier's decision to exit the European market (NBAMR) is unlikely to trigger major pricing shifts, though it will force some buyers to look for alternatives, sources tell Undercurrent.

Favorable position for pollock

Against this backdrop, global whitefish supplies are expected to decline in 2025, a trend that places Alaska pollock in an even more favorable position. Processors and end-users alike are gravitating toward pollock as cod supplies tighten, citing the species' stable stock management and generally accessible pricing.

Consequently, the US wholesale market continues to have a full steady to firm undertone, reflecting ongoing demand and constraints in global inventories. Market participants note that while prices are higher than previous seasons, pollock remains more stable and affordable relative to many other premium whitefish offerings, making it a standout choice in an increasingly competitive market.

Adding to this momentum, the 2025 "A" season for wild Alaska pollock officially kicked off on January 20. Fishing vessels in the Bering Sea will operate over a biomass estimated at more than 10 million metric tons, with spawning typically peaking in February and March near Dutch Harbor and Unalaska.

At the same time, a separate "A" season fishery in the Gulf of Alaska, centered around Kodiak Island, the Alaskan mainland, and the Shumagin Islands, holds a quota of just over 90,000t. Altogether, fishermen in these areas are projected to land around 650,000t of pollock, resulting in roughly 200,000t of frozen products (including about 15,000t of roe), plus fish meal and oil, ensuring nearly the entire catch is utilized.

Although the 2025 "A" season has just begun, much of the reported pricing still reflects the tail end of last season's market conditions. Buyers and sellers are in the process of confirming new season prices, which could evolve in response to the anticipated supply, ongoing logistical concerns, and any shifts in global trade policy. 

Recent export declines

In looking at the most recent data from Undercurrent's trade portal, US exports of Alaska pollock frozen fillets saw a decline in both value and volume in November 2024 compared to the previous month. The total export volume dropped from 12.5m lbs. in October to 10.8m lbs. in November while the export value in November was $15.5m, down from $19m in October. 2024.

When analyzing US imports of Alaska pollock frozen fillets from China, in general 2023 had higher average prices than 2024, with import costs consistently priced over $1.50 per pound, while 2024 showed more volatility in pricing, especially in the early months. The data also reflects a trend toward lower volumes in 2024 compared to the larger quantities seen in 2022. 

 
Alaska pollock is entering the 2025 "A" season with cautious optimism. A modest boost in the Bering Sea TAC, reliable resource conditions, and robust global demand are reinforcing pollock's status among whitefish.

Even with looming questions around logistics and potential trade policy shifts under the new US administration, processors and buyers remain drawn to pollock's steady pricing and stable supplies.

Early reports suggest higher market quotations than last year, though much of today's pricing still reflects previous season dynamics. As new A season catches ramp up, participants anticipate further clarity on price adjustments, factoring in the potential for tighter global whitefish supplies, salmon bycatch regulations, and ongoing export-import fluctuations.