This year's overall global chum salmon catch has the potential to be similar to last year's total of 71 million fish and 200,000 metric tons, based on a combination of forecast and landings data, the Canadian wholesaler Tradex reports in its latest 3-Minute Market Insight.

However, the fish are generally smaller. 

In the US state of Alaska, the peak weeks of keta landings have likely passed and only slightly over 40% of the forecast has been met, though harvesting will continue into the fall, Tradex noted. Final harvest totals for Alaskan chum have varied significantly in recent years, ranging from 30% to 140% of preseason forecasts.

Last year, the average size of Alaskan chum salmon was 6.47 pounds, smaller than both five- and 10-year averages. 

Image from Tradex video.

In the US state of Washington, meanwhile, fishery managers have issued a run size forecast totaling approximately 1m fish for 2024, which is 30% higher than last year's forecast. However, final catch totals were dismal and may have been the worst in the state's history.

The average size of Washington state chum last year was about 8.92 lbs, slightly higher than both five- and 10-year averages.

The pace of fishing is much slower in Russia than in previous years, but landings seem to be picking up, Tradex noted. This year’s Russian chum salmon forecast aligns with the previous three years, and the final harvest totals have also remained consistent during this period.

The average size of Russian chum last year was 6.06 lbs, lower than both five- and 10-year averages. 

Image from Tradex video.

In Japan, this year's Hokkaido fall chum return forecast is even lower than last year's, potentially leading to the lowest chum salmon harvest since 1969, with levels comparable to those seen in 2019 and 2020. The average size of Japanese chum last year was about 6.66 lb, lower than both five- and 10-year averages.

The one source of chum salmon that seems to be bucking the trend is Tradex's home province of BC. While averaging 12.56 lbs last year, BC chum salmon are nearly twice the size of those from Russia and Alaska, though B.C. harvest totals are extremely low, the company said.

"For chum salmon, it’s anyone's guess where final landings will end up, but one thing is clear: Globally there will be less salmon overall than last year," Tradex concluded.