The US groundfish market continues to experience significant upward pressure, primarily driven by supply shortages and rising demand across key species, particularly Atlantic cod and haddock, sources tell Undercurrent News. 

Supply challenges have intensified as Chinese vendors are increasingly declining orders due to a lack of product, tightening availability in the twice-frozen sector. This barely adequate short-supply situation, coupled with growing demand from buyers looking to secure inventory before further anticipated price hikes, is expected to exacerbate market strain and potentially push prices higher.

On top of these supply concerns, logistical issues, such as the ongoing East Coast port strike, as reported by Undercurrent, are adding to the pressures. Delayed imports, depleted inventories, and rising transportation costs are likely to disrupt the flow of groundfish into the US, further straining supply chains and driving prices upward across the market.                     

US wholesale prices: Groundfish (twice-frozen) Week 44

In terms of pricing momentum, Atlantic cod and haddock are leading the charge. September saw notable increases in twice-frozen Atlantic cod prices, with loins averaging $5.60 per pound—a 4.7% rise from the previous month and a 10.8% increase from January 2024.

Twice-frozen haddock prices have also surged, with IQF fillets now averaging $3.80/lb, marking a 2.7% increase month-over-month and a 10.1% increase since the start of the year.

While Pacific cod has been somewhat insulated from the steep price hikes seen in Atlantic cod, it’s still experiencing upward movement. Loins are trading at $4.70/lb, up 2.2% from the previous month and 9.3% since January 2024.                                 

US wholesale prices: Groundfish (single-frozen) Week 44

In the single-frozen category, demand has softened slightly due to high premiums, but prices continue to rise. Frozen-at-sea Icelandic cod reached an average of $6.50/lb in early October, reflecting a 3.2% month-over-month increase. Meanwhile, frozen-at-sea Icelandic haddock is averaging $4.70/lb, a 4.4% rise from last month.

Overall, the groundfish market remains under pressure from a combination of supply disruptions, heightened demand in anticipation of further price increases, and logistical uncertainties. Substitution trends, particularly with haddock and Pacific cod, are expected to influence market dynamics as buyers seek more affordable alternatives to Atlantic cod.

With supply shortages looming and continued challenges in trade logistics, the groundfish market may see even greater volatility in the coming months, potentially pushing prices even higher as we move into the fourth quarter and beyond.

Norwegian raw material rising 

Meanwhile, the delivered China prices for frozen headed and gutted (H&G) Norwegian Atlantic cod rose sharply in week 39 (Sept. 23-29), with further increases predicted this week by Undercurrent sources.

Sources gave a range for 1-2kg H&G Atlantic Norwegian cod, cost and freight (CFR) to Chinese processing hubs like Dalian and Qingdao, from $6,700 to $6,900 per metric ton. 

Undercurrent's week 39 assessment on 1-2kg frozen Norwegian cod is $6,800/t, up $200/t from the previous week.

Sources gave prices for 1-2kg frozen Russian H&G cod in the $5,200-$5,40/t range, CFR China, so Undercurrent pined its week 39 assessment at $5,300/t, with further increases also forecasted.

The wide price spread between the Norwegian and Russian H&G cod is driven by the fact that only the former can be sent to China for processing and then shipped to the US. This came into play on June 1, after the December executive order from US president Joseph Biden. 

Looking at frozen haddock, H&G prices for Norwegian and Russian raw material have almost converged. The closer price gap compared to H&G cod is because haddock can still go to China, be processed, and then sent to the US. 

In week 39, the Russian supplier and European trader said levels for Russian 500 gram to 1kg frozen Russian haddock had risen some $300/t in a week to $4,000/t, CFR China. That's only $100/t under the level being discussed in the market for Norwegian 800g frozen H&G haddock, although that's forecasted to increase more.

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Undercurrent News is excited to announce the launch of our new weekly US wholesale price update for subscribers. These updates will provide timely insights into key trends, pricing fluctuations, and market dynamics across various seafood categories, starting with the groundfish market.

Our methodology is based on wholesale prices collected from trusted sources throughout the supply chain, focusing on ex-warehouse delivery prices of LTL volumes to ensure accurate and representative data.

With this feature, our subscribers can stay ahead of shifting demand, supply chain disruptions, and price fluctuations impacting their business. Stay tuned for in-depth analysis and up-to-date wholesale pricing as Undercurrent introduces coverage across all major species in the weeks ahead.