Norwegian exports of wild-caught fresh, frozen and salted whitefish are continuing to fall with each passing month, as the latest monthly data from the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC) shows that October has continued this trend.

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Altogether, while Norway sold 1,774 metric tons of fresh cod overseas in the latest month -- a 2% year-on-year improvement -- only 781t of this figure was wild-caught, down 13%.

Nevertheless, fresh farmed cod is currently filling the gap for the sector.

"This is the first time since September 2023 that there has been an increase in export volumes for fresh cod compared with the same month the previous year," noted NSC whitefish analyst Eivind Braekkan. "This is due to the increase in the export of fresh farmed cod, which grew by 18% to 992t."

Such has been the growth that farmed cod accounted for 54% of the total export value of fresh cod in the latest month.

"Fresh whole farmed cod has seen an increase in export volume of as much as 40% so far this year, to a total of 9,900t," said Braekkan. "This means that farmed cod is set to beat the 2010 export record of 11,100t by the end of the year."

Frozen, clipfish markets find supply running thin

However, for frozen cod markets, where farmed cod plays no such role, export values fell 5% to NOK 251 million ($22.8m), even as volume tumbled by 23% to 3,286t. 

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The UK reportedly saw the highest value growth in the latest month, up by 176%, or NOK 55m, compared to the same month of 2023, even as export volumes to the country more than doubled to 1,024t.

"The strong trend in exports of frozen whole cod to the UK continued in October," said Braekkan. "So far this year, export volumes to the UK have increased by as much as 11%, compared with a decline in total export volumes of 12%."

Still, China remained the largest single market for frozen cod by value during the month, with Vietnam coming in third behind the UK.

It was a similar picture for clipfish, where volumes fell by 11% to 9,671t, even as values slipped 6% to NOK 804m. Portugal, Brazil and the Dominican Republic were the largest monthly markets for clipfish.

For saithe clipfish, the export volume fell by 13% to 4,617t, while total export value fell by 11% to NOK 218m.

Cod clipfish, which represents an ever-decreasing portion of the total clipfish market, slipped by 16% in export volume to 3,777t, although the monthly export value only dropped 6% to NOK 513m, propped up by high raw material prices.

"The Dominican Republic, which is our largest market for saithe clipfish, saw the greatest growth in value for October, with an increase in export value of NOK 49m, or 125% compared with the same month last year," noted Braekkan. Volumes to the Caribbean country were up 93% at 1,829t.

On the other hand, cod clipfish export volumes to Portugal were down 20% to 2,800t, while export values were down 8% to NOK 390m. Year-to-date Norwegian clipfish sales to Portugal have dropped by 7%.

However, given the fall in annual wild-catch quotas, it's clear that Portugal remains a priority destination for the species.

"Although the volume of exports to Portugal has fallen this year, the trend is significantly stronger than the catch of cod," notes Braekkan. "Figures from the directorate of fisheries show that as of week 43 this year, cod catches have fallen by as much as 31% compared with the same week last year."

For salted fish, which the NSC classes as distinct from clipfish, values increased by 11% to NOK 168m, while volumes dropped 17% y-o-y to 1,788t.

Italy saw the highest value growth, up 87% y-o-y after a 73% increase in monthly export volumes to 536t. Total export volumes of salted fish to Italy are currently 9% higher this year than last, while exports of salted cod to Portugal are down 20% year-to-date.

In the NSC's final category of dried whitefish export product -- stockfish -- Norway exported 412t, worth NOK 116m. Similarly to other products, this marks y-o-y downturns of 15% and 6% respectively.

Drops in the whitefish category have largely flown against the general trend for October, which saw Norwegian seafood exports hit their highest monthly value on record. You can read more on that here.