President-elect Donald Trump on Monday (Nov. 25) doubled down on his threat to start multiple new trade wars that would be painful for US seafood importers to confront. 

He's promising to use his authority on the first day of his second stay in the White House to impose 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico, while simultaneously raising tariffs another 10% on China -- all of which could cost US seafood importers as much as another $1.2 billion annually, based on 2023 import totals, Undercurrent News has calculated.

And that's on top of the nearly $350.0 million already paid annually in tariffs, thanks in large part to the trade war Trump started with China in 2018, during his first term as president (2017-2020). The tariffs have continued during the president Joe Biden administration (2021-2024).

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Trump asserted that the new tariffs are necessary to stop drugs and illegal aliens from entering the US.

"On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders," Trump posted on his Truth Social platform. "This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!"

Trump said America's neighbors can "easily solve this long-simmering problem."

Similarly, the president-elect said China will face higher tariffs – 10% above any existing tariffs – until it prevents the flow of illegal drugs into the US.

"I have had many talks with China about the massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl, being sent into the United States – But to no avail," he said on Truth Social.

Trump claimed in the post that Chinese officials promised him the country would execute drug dealers caught funneling drugs into the US but "never followed through."

One of president-elect Donald Trump's multiple tariff-related posts on Truth Social, made Nov. 25, 2024.

What it would cost

Undercurrent tallied up what seafood importers might expect to pay should Trump make good on his latest threat.

The US imported 271,505 metric tons of seafood worth $3.6bn from Canada in 2023. It was the US' most valuable source of seafood last year. A 25% tariff would've been equal to $889.5m in 2023.

The Canadian seafood items that have generated the most value as US imports and would be hit the hardest by tariffs include lobster (40,522t worth $1.2bn in 2023), salmon (72,628t worth $717.9m) and frozen snow crab (53,416t worth $685.4m in 2023). Imagine a 25% tariff added to each. 

The US imported 77,995t of seafood worth $1.5bn from Mexico in 2023. Mexico was the US' 10th most valuable seafood source. A 25% tariff would've cost importers $161.8m last year. 

The most valuable items from Mexico last year included shrimp (15,640t worth $196.3m), tuna (20,038t worth $147.2m) and snapper (4,978t worth $52.5m).

The US imported 335,995t of seafood worth $1.5bn from China, the US' seventh most valuable source nation, in 2023. Thanks to the 25% tariff already being charged for Chinese seafood, importers were forced to cough up nearly $220.0m in tariffs last year, as previously noted.

Another 10% tariff could add up to $153.3m annually to the bill, based on 2023 data, though it's unclear if earlier exemptions to tariffs would be applied.

The hardest hit item would be frozen Chinese tilapia. The US imported 112,811t of tilapia worth $317.2m from China in 2023, paying $77.1m in tariffs. An additional 10% tariff would potentially add another $32.0m in annual expense. 

Thanks to earlier exemptions, the US was able to import 30,607t of cod worth $280.5m last year, and only pay tariffs of $1.3m. Similarly, the US imported 27,963t of salmon worth $214.7m last year, and only paid $689,465 in tariffs.  

USMCA's fate unclear

The US seafood industry already had begun to respond to Trump's threat of new tariffs, made during his presidential campaign, as reported earlier by Undercurrent. 

"The potential tariffs will create a ripple effect across the industry -- there will be those who gain and those that will lose," Gorjan Nikolik, senior analyst for the Dutch bank Rabobank told Undercurrent. "With almost 80% of consumption of US seafood coming from imports, if the tariffs are erected we can also see a shift away from seafood into domestically produced animal proteins, such as poultry and beef."

The US seafood industry won't be the only one to raise concerns. Trump's latest threats promise to add a total of about $272 billion per year to tax burdens, the price of goods and interest rates in the US, Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay Cross-Border Solutions, has reportedly estimated, according to CNN.

Most mainstream economists believe tariffs will be inflationary, and the Peterson Institute for International Economics has estimated Trump's proposed tariffs would cost the typical US household over $2,600 a year.

Currency markets already have begun to react.

Chinese tilapia in an Asian grocery store in Fairfax, Virginia. Photograph by Jason Huffman.

Immediately after the announcement, the Canadian dollar fell 1.2% against the US dollar, and the Mexican peso fell 2% against the dollar, though both recovered some of their losses Tuesday morning. China's yuan, though controlled by the government, traded higher – above 7.6% – in offshore markets, CNN reported.

Although investors believed the tariffs could ultimately strengthen the dollar, America's financial markets took a hit, too. Dow stock futures fell 130 points, or 0.3%, Tuesday morning. The broader S&P 500 and Nasdaq were slightly higher.

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Many US imports from Canada and Mexico are exempted from tariffs because of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a deal reached between the three nations that Trump pushed for during his first administration to update the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

It's not clear how Trump would plan to implement the proposed tariffs without violating the USMCA. He has routinely referenced the passage of the USMCA as a political victory and a highlight of his earlier presidency.

Of course, any tariffs imposed by the US can expect to be met with return fire, threatening seafood importers in other countries.

Claudia Sheinbaum. Photograph on Wikimedia.

Responding to Trump's announcement, Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said his country has been in communication with the US about counternarcotics operations and that "the idea of China knowingly allowing fentanyl precursors to flow into the United States runs completely counter to facts and reality," CNN reported.

"About the issue of US tariffs on China, China believes that China-US economic and trade cooperation is mutually beneficial in nature. No one will win a trade war or a tariff war," Liu said in a statement.

Mexico president Claudia Sheinbaum reportedly responded Tuesday by warning Trump that "neither threats nor tariffs will solve the issue of migration or drug consumption."

She said, "Imposing one tariff would mean another comes in response, continuing like this until we put shared companies at risk."

America gets the majority of its cars and car parts from Mexico, which surpassed China as the top exporter to the US in 2023, according to trade data released by the Commerce Department earlier this year. Mexico is also a major supplier of electronics, machinery, oil and optical apparatus, and a significant amount of furniture and alcohol comes from the country into the US.

Canadian officials responded to the announcement in a statement posted to X on Monday night, saying that their country "places the highest priority on border security and the integrity of our shared border" and is "essential to US domestic energy supply."

Canada's deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland and public safety minister Dominic LeBlanc said in a statement: "We will of course continue to discuss these issues with the incoming administration." 

The US' top import from Canada is oil, which reached a record 4.3 million barrels per day in July, CNN reported, quoting the US Energy Information Administration.