Shellfish sellers in the US need to be able to punch like a boxer, but also be nimble like a ballet dancer, the seven-person shellfish panel at the Global Seafood Market Conference, in Palm Springs, California, advised attendees last week.

At least that was the explanation moderator Annie Tselikis, director of marketing and business development for Slade Gorton & Company, Inc., gave for the title of their presentation, "Boxers and Ballerinas," and the slide featuring an image from the 2000 movie "Billy Elliot."

Tselikis, whose company was acquired by Canada's Cooke Inc. in early 2023, opened the session by rattling off a list of the many challenges currently confronting the larger sector. She also has served for nearly 11 years as executive director of the Maine Lobster Dealers' Association.

"We've seen issues like supply constraints," she said. "We've seen really strong demand, which is a challenge and also a great situation for all of us to be in that we are seeing strong demand for our products. We have an unknown situation with our tariffs moving forward."

A slide from the 2025 GSMC shellfish panel.

Scallop players must practice 'flexibility,' 'optionality'

Brad Marder, vice president of sales at Marder Seafood, in New Bedford, Massachusetts, took on the topic of scallops to kick off the session. The key for suppliers and buyers in 2025 will be to be flexible in considering smaller sizes and practice "optionality" in considering imported scallops, he said, mirroring the "Billy Elliot" theme.

As Undercurrent News has repeatedly reported, domestic landings of Atlantic scallops (Placopecten magellanicus) look to finish down during the 2024-25 season, which started on April 1, 2024 and ends on March 31, 2025. The new rules around US landings in 2025 will result in a 26% reduction in projected landings, Marder recounted.

Also, larger scallops will be harder to find and more expensive. 

A slide presentation from the 2025 GSMC shellfish panel shows the US's breakdown of landings by size.

And, on top of that, scallop landings also look to be down in major US import sources Japan and Canada (-26%), he noted, as also earlier reported by Undercurrent.

A slide from the 2025 GSMC shellfish panel presentation shows different scallop seasons of importance.

"I think it's important to remember it's a wild capture fishery," Marder said. "So there's going to be trends that move up. There's going to be trends that move lower and [the National Marine Fisheries Service] suggests that there's strong recruitment ​to be harvested in future years."

He stressed that the Atlantic scallop fishery remains a sustainable one.

Andrew Cline, seafood director at US grocery chain Giant Eagle, said he has noticed the change in domestic scallop prices and, like other retailers, has started to embrace more imports.

"Domestic scallop prices really started to jump," Cline said. "And not that it was a panic mode, but it was what are we going to do? And then that's when everybody started to change over to the Japanese scallop to be able to provide something extra. The supply was there domestically, however, the pricing was pretty high and the question was were customers going to pay for it."

He continued: "And so again, optionality kicking into play, being able to have those different price ranges for the customers to go after, I think that was key, especially going into the holidays for us, I think for a lot of retailers."

But the demand for Japanese scallops is worldwide, which will drive their price higher, too, closing the gap with domestic scallops, Marder suggested.

A slide from the 2025 GSMC shellfish panel.

Restaurants will have to ask themselves if they want to move to smaller sizes, Cline said.

"Whenever you're talking about putting an item on a plate or selling a product, the question that you have to ask yourself is, do we want to be able to offer that product to our customer?" he said. "You're going to be able to, but you may have to drop down a size and add an extra scallop to a plate. That's a question that you have to answer for yourself as a restaurateur."

Price gap between BSC, RSC thinning

The pricing gap between blue swimming crabmeat (BSC) and red swimming crabmeat (RSC) is shortening, but closer to historical levels, Troy Turkin, chief operating officer at Supreme Crab & Seafood, pointed out during the shellfish panel.

Wholesale sources reported recently that the average price for a pound of jumbo lump BSC during the week of Jan. 12-18, for example, was $31.25-$32.00/lb, down from the $32.50-$33.25/lb range seen a year earlier. A pound of jumbo lump RSC during the week of Jan. 12-18 was $23.25-$24.00/lb, higher than the $19.25-$20.00/lb range.

That's a gap of $8.00/lb during the second week of January 2025 compared to a gap of $13.25/lb during the second week of January 2024.

Typically, when the price gap between BSC and RSC grows far apart, there is pressure for the two to draw closer together. 

Image is from 2025 GSMC shellfish panel.

Turkin said he was worried about how future tariffs under the president Donald Trump administration might impact the cost of RSC, which is only sourced from China and Vietnam.

Those looking to source BSC, meanwhile, are gaining more options, noted Roman Tkachenko, CEO at Direct Source Seafood, in Bellevue, Washington. While Indonesia continues to be the dominant source for BSC, Direct Source has also been turning to Sri Lanka and Mexico for product.

Those countries don't have large fisheries, but they do provide an eco-friendly crab for the niche markets, he said.

The harvest timing varies in the major crab fisheries, as illustrated in another slide.

A slide from the 2025 GSMC shellfish panel.

BSC currently accounts for 84% of the US market while RSC takes up roughly the other 16%, Turkin noted.

Image is from 2025 GSMC shellfish panel.

Lobster supply stable despite volatile appearance

It's easy to get the impression that the US' supply of North American lobster is shrinking and volatile if you look at any one of the charts used to measure each of the Canadian and US sources separately, the shellfish panel advised.

For example, the harvest in Maine peaked at 130 million pounds in 2016 but it hasn't reached that level since and shrunk to about 90m lbs in 2022. In 2023, Maine -- which accounts for roughly 90% of US lobster landings -- saw a harvest of 93.7m lbs worth $464.4m.

It was the smallest landings number for Maine since 2009 when harvesters brought in 81.2m lbs, as reported by Undercurrent. 

However, the US' total supply of North American lobster is relatively stable because as some areas have down periods, other areas have expanded, the panel shared. As another chart illustrated, the global landings of North American lobster landings has remained steadily above 300m lbs for at least the past 10 years.

"When you're looking at the North Atlantic lobster fishery at large and looking at Maine and Atlantic Canada, the two really compliment each other, particularly from a timing perspective," said Owen Kenney, vice president of sales for Champlain Seafood, a Dieppe, New Brunswick, Canada-based processor. "Canada in the spring is going to land a large quantity of volume while there's very little fishing effort in Maine. Then, as Maine volumes ramp up and they hit their peak season in July really through October, there's very little activity in Canada. And as Maine fades in November, [lobster fishing areas] in Canada start to open up around Southwest Nova Scotia and provide supply that comes online in November and December, and that timing of supply has remained constant."

Image from the 2025 GSMC shellfish panel.

But while volumes have dropped in some parts of Atlantic Canada, they've increased in others, like the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Cape Breton (the northern part of Nova Scotia), Quebec and Newfoundland, he said.

Image from 2025 GSMC shellfish panel.

The panel also shared a chart that showed the different areas of Canada and when their lobster seasons were scheduled.

Image from the 2025 GSMC shellfish panel.

"For the longest time, the main lobster industry hovered around 20m lbs," Tselikis said. "And then in the early nineties, after years and years of very good fisheries management practices that were in place for over 100 years, you saw this increase in landed volume of lobster and also due to lack of predation due to a decline in the groundfish industry. There was this enormous jump in lobster over about a 20-30 year period. And for those of us that were there for the rise, we knew that it wasn't going to last forever. We knew there would eventually be a leveling off. So if you're reading in the media and you see a decline in lobster landings, it is not a catastrophe."

Andrew Cline, the director of seafood for US grocery store chain Giant Eagle, admitted to the crowd that he was previously confused by the lobster supply situation before suppliers explained the timing to him.

"I remember last year whenever we were having a discussion and it was just me and my ignorance, I go, where did all the lobster go?" he recalled. "And that was one of the questions that I was having because again, just trying to learn as much as I could and talking to the people that know what's going on to be able to have some assurances about what's happening."

He said his sources told him to not be "too freaked out" because of the large supply that would be coming from Canada.

The key is to plan ahead, the panel advised, and understand when different production areas will be opening up.

There have been a few new factors, too, the panel mentioned. The emergence of China as a major buyer of North American lobster, for example. Shipments to China from Canada and the US went from around 11m lbs in 2013 to north of 70m lbs in 2023, they noted.

"So that's been a big factor in terms of a lot of the volatility within the category and then a lot of the shifts in terms of the timing of when product comes in," Kenney said.

Another variable that could have an impact on lobster trade, of course, is new tariffs, as threatened against Canada by president Donald Trump.

"When we talk about some of the pending potential challenges that we might see with regard to tariffs, it's really going to impact our business because of the way that we handle the product," said Tselikis. "… About 60% of [the lobster landed in Maine] or more depending on the year, will get shipped to Canada for processing."

The reason is that Canada has "significantly more processing capacity," Kenney added.

'Upward pressure' building on snow crab

There is "upward pressure" on snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) pricing ahead of the Canadian harvesting seasons, where supply is expected to come down, Roman Tkachenko, CEO of US importer Direct Source Seafood, told attendees.

"We're into the $8s [$8 per pound] on 5-8s [oz frozen clusters], and it remains to be seen where it goes," but the signs are there for further increases, said Tkachenko, whose company is based in Bellevue, Washington.

"Retail is driving demand with good promotions, pricing getting to 2018-2019 levels," he said.

Snow crab pricing from the Global Seafood Market Conference shellfish panel.

In 2023, snow crab pricing fell to around $6.00/lb for 5-8 oz. "The pricing below $6.00 put it on the map for retail. There was an oversupply, then we had to get the customer back, which they did," said Tkachenko.

For 2025, the scientific advice is for a 30% cut in the Gulf of St. Lawrence fishery, after a 26% drop in 2024. Then, in Newfoundland and Labrador, the world's largest snow crab fishery, the level for 2025 is not clear.

Norway's snow crab quota is up 24% for 2025, but it's only 3.5 million lbs, or 1,590 metric tons, which is a drop in the ocean globally, as you can see below.

Global snow crab supply from the Global Seafood Market Conference shellfish panel.

US president Donald Trump, who took office on Monday, has also threatened to put 25% tariffs on Canada from Feb. 1, which is a major "unknown" for 2025, said Tkachenko.

"Tariffs are on everyone's mind, Canada is 91% of our imports of snow crab," he said.

Another unknown is what will happen with Russian supply, which is currently banned from the US market, due to a ban put in place by former president Joseph Biden. Trump aims to end the war in Ukraine with Russia, which many see could lead to a lifting of the ban.

"There's a lot of potential something will happen [with a lifting of the ban], but I don't think it will be for the next six-to-12 months," said Tkachenko, who is from Ukraine and was formerly one of the largest US importers of Russian crab.

Come get your 'tariff-free' king crab while you can

The picture of the US market for king crab, meanwhile, is less pretty.

The global supply of red king crab is strong overall but the majority of production is from Russia, which is banned in US markets. Production in Alaska is on the decline, meanwhile, allowing an opportunity for Norwegian producers. Regardless, supplies are extremely stretched.

"It's a great product and obviously not having enough of it hurts," Tkachenko said. "It is extremely short, but it is a niche item. It's something that people want – if it's available."

From the 2025 GSMC shellfish panel.

From the 2025 GSMC shellfish panel.

But there is a small amount of red king crab fishery available from Bristol Bay, Alaska, which saw a 7% quota increase, as Undercurrent News reported, with a quota of 2.31m lbs or 1,048t. 

"Supply is really limited here in the US so we don't have a whole lot," Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute (ASMI) executive director Jeremy Woodrow said. "Come get your tariff–free crab while you can."

From the 2025 GSMC shellfish panel.

Panel moderator Janice Schreiber, editor at Urner Barry by Expana, had "phoned a friend" when the conversation turned to king crab, asking Woodrow to stand up in the audience and grab the microphone to share an update out of Alaska.

This year, the red king crab and gold king crab fisheries are open -- despite figures not rebounding to historical numbers, he said. The fleet needs to fish, so fishery managers in the state are allowing some harvesting to go on, he added.

"Supply is very limited," he emphasized. "We don't have a lot, but come get your tariff-free crab while you can."

Woodrow was again referencing the impending tariffs that Trump plans to introduce on Canada possibly as soon as Feb. 1, 2025. As Undercurrent has reported, Trump and tariffs were a major point of conversation during day one of GSMC.

The panel spent very little time discussing the US' Dungeness crab supply, but noted that it was down 54% from 2023 to 2024, while prices are much higher.

From the 2025 GSMC shellfish panel.